Attention turns to US NFP data
Daily insights on Forex and other financial markets - prices, pairs, flows, strategies and much much more
Thursday 04 September 2025
Rising long-term bond yields are still are concern for markets but attention is turning towards tomorrow's key US NFP jobs/wages data given the Fed's focus on the labour market. September rate cuts still expected but traders, and the FOMC, will be desperate fo further clues.
The display of strength by China in recent days along with the physical presence of Putin and other autocratic leaders should, and can not, be ignored as Trump tries to show he's not intimidated. " Coalition of the willing" leaders meeting today in Paris including Macron, Zelensky and Starmer to discuss Ukraine and try and increase pressure on Russia but Putin suitably unimpressed.Japan's political woes continue and pressure remains on the UK government as they delay the Autumn Budget to 26 November. Expect much conjecture and rhetoric meanwhile.
The data slate today brings Challenger, ADP and weekly jobless claims from the US later as a warm-up/indication for NFPs tomorrow as well as US and Canadian trade balance numbers. CB speakers scheduled are Fed's Williams and Goolsbee.
Equity markets fell again yesterday but have found dip demand albeit capping in Asia/early-Europe as I type. Oil has drifted lower with WTI testing $63.00 this morning after capping at $65.30 yesterday as the jury remains out. Gold rallied further to post new record highs of $3578 amid the fragile backdrop but since retreated to $3510 with profit takers ever-poised.
GBPUSD: Finding support around 1.3350 then 1.3400 yesterday amid some USD supply returning before capping at 1.3455-60 with GBPJPY and EURGBP still making an impact. EURGBP: Support at 0.8670 now after capping at 0.8710 yesterday. Expect more two-way. GBPJPY: Capping at 199.70 yesterday after a decent rally from 198.30 but another retreat to 198.80 since. Sellers will remain poised but equally dip demand still.
EURUSD: Finding support around 1.1630 after holding 1.1610 but capping into 1.1680 again as the jury remains out. Large option interest very much in play. USDJPY: Support at 147.80 after capping at 148.80 as some USD supply and JPY demand returned. More two-way expected .EURJPY: Holding 172.40-50 but capping at 173.00. Expect more two-way amid the general uncertainty.
USDCHF: Support at 0.8020-30 still helped by some EURCHF dip demand but capping at 0.8060 amid general CHF demand still. Expect more two-way. EURCHF: Support around 0.9370 now but equally capping into 0.9390 as CHF demand prevails overall. Expect more two-way.
AUDUSD: A hold of 0.6520 so far in the retreat from 0.6550 amid the variable USD and AUDJPY/AUDCHF cross flows as we continue to range. GBPAUD: Support at 2.0500-20 but capping at 2.0600. Expect more two way amid other cross flows. NZDUSD: A hold of 0.5860 so far this morning after capping at 0.5890 in the USD supply-led rally. Expect more two-way. GBPNZD: Support at 2.2830-50 this morning but capping at 2.2900-20 amid the other cross flows. Expect more two-way.
USDCAD: A hold of 1.3780-90 this time helped by softer oil tones but capping at 1.3815 as we continue to range tightly. More two-way expected amid USD/oil/trade variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.13 BST
GBPUSD 1.3426
EURUSD 1.1651
EURGBP 0.8677
GBPEUR 1.1522
USDJPY 148.25
GBPJPY 199.04
GBPCHF 1.0813
GBPZAR 23.8297
GBPHKD 10.4542
USDCHF 0.8049
EURCHF 0.9376
EURHKD 9.0669
AUDUSD 0.6523
NZDUSD 0.5863
USDCAD 1.3813