US NFPs in focus
Daily insights on Forex and other financial markets - prices, pairs, flows, strategies and much much more
Friday 05 September 2025
We've seen some further USD supply ahead of today's key US NFP jobs/wages data given the Fed's focus on the labour market. September rate cuts still expected but traders, and the FOMC, will be desperate for further clues. Fed's Goolsbee has come out with a timely reminder that some FOMC members still remain undecided.
Other data out today has already brought stronger Japanese wages data with real wages rising for the first time since last December and household spending up for a third straight month giving support for JPY on interest rate hike hopes. This morning brought a little bit of relief for the UK government, and the Pound, with better than expected Retail Sales numbers but nothing to change minds of BOE MPC members.
Canadian Jobs/wages data and Ivey PMI out later alongside the US NFPs. No CB speakers scheduled.
Equity markets have found dip demand again albeit capping as I type. Oil has extended recent losses with WTI posting $62.55 lows and capping now at $63.20-30 as the jury remains out. Gold rallied again to $3560 this time amid the fragile backdrop having held $3510 then $3535.
GBPUSD: Finding support around 1.3410-20 yesterday amid the USD supply before capping at 1.3470-75 this morning so far in its post UK data rally with GBPJPY and EURGBP still making an impact. EURGBP: Support at 0.8660 now but capping at 0.8680-85. Expect more two-way. GBPJPY: Capping at 199.80 yesterday after a decent rally from 198.80 and currently holding 199.20. Sellers will remain poised but equally dip demand still.
EURUSD: Finding support around 1.1630 again but equally capping into 1.1680-85 again as we continue to range. .USDJPY: Support at 147.80 still but capping at 148.80 again as some USD supply and JPY demand returned. More two-way expected but I prefer rally-sell side still overall albeit with caution. EURJPY: Holding 172.40-50 still but capping at 173.20. Expect more two-way amid the general uncertainty.
USDCHF: Support at 0.8020-30 still helped by some EURCHF dip demand but capping at 0.8075 amid general CHF demand still. Expect more two-way. EURCHF: Support around 0.9370 again but equally capping into 0.9395 as CHF demand prevails overall. Expect more two-way.
AUDUSD: A hold of 0.6500 then 0.6520 again amid the softer USD and AUDJPY/AUDCHF cross flows as we continue to range. GBPAUD: Support at 2.0530-50 but capping at 2.0650. Expect more two way amid other cross flows. NZDUSD: A hold of 0.5830 then 0.5860 again this morning amid the USD supply but capping at 0.5880 as I type. Expect more two-way. GBPNZD: Support at 2.2830-50 this morning but capping at 2.2900-20 amid the other cross flows. Expect more two-way.
USDCAD: A hold of 1.3790 this morning helped by softer oil tones after capping at 1.3845 as we continue to range tightly. More two-way expected amid USD/oil/trade variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST
GBPUSD 1.3463
EURUSD 1.1677
EURGBP 0.8672
GBPEUR 1.1530
USDJPY 148.23
GBPJPY 199.57
GBPCHF 1.0822
GBPZAR 23.8065
GBPHKD 10.7421
USDCHF 0.8035
EURCHF 0.9382
EURHKD 9.3169
AUDUSD 0.6542
NZDUSD 0.5875
USDCAD 1.3795